Vistra Energy Corp. (VST) Stock Doesn’t Offer Much Upside?

The Vistra Energy Corp. (NYSE:VST) bulls won the day, but the reality is that the 0.18 points or 0.69 percent advance gave very little definitive technical indication of where the stock could be headed next. On 12 February, the shares traded at $26.29 with a light trade volume of 3.825 million shares. After opening the session at $26.25, the shares went as high as $26.61 and as low as $26.2, the range within which the stock’s price traded throughout the day. The firm is left with a market cap of $13.1 billion and now has 496.66 million shares outstanding. Vistra Energy Corp. (VST) stock has gained 10.51 percent of market value in 21 trading days.

VST stock has a trailing 3-year beta of 0, offering the possibility of a lower rate of return, but also posing less risk. The portion of a company’s profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock was -$0.2 a share in the trailing twelve months. The stock’s value has surged 14.85 percent year to date (YTD) against a rise of 47.04 percent in 12 month’s time. The company’s shares still trade 0 percent away from its 1-year high of $26.29 and 51.01 percent up from 52-week low of $17.41. The average consensus rating on the company is 1.7, on a scale where 5 equates to a unanimous sell rating. In short, the mean analyst recommendations are calling this stock a buy.

Vistra Energy Corp. (VST) will probably climb 16.89 percent over the next 12 months, according to price target estimates compiled by finviz. Meanwhile, they have set a $39 price as 12-month high target. This represents a whopping 48.35 percent increase from where shares are trading today. The 12-month median price target assigned by the analysts stands at $32, which represents a return potential of 21.72 percent when compared to the closing price of the stock of $26.29 on Tuesday, February 12. The lowest price target for the stock is $25 — slightly more than -4.91 percent from VST’s current share price.

History has shown that shares in Vistra Energy Corp. have gone up on 4 different earnings reaction days and are predicted to add 0.02 percent when the company reports upcoming earnings. Investors will get their next glimpse of VST’s Q4 earnings on February 28. Analysts are forecasting revenue to climb 201.3 percent to $2.84B in the fiscal fourth quarter, while earnings are seen soaring by nearly 188.89 percent to $0.52 per share. It earned $0.6 per share, worse than the $0.87, adjusted, expected by Thomson Reuters consensus estimate. Revenue was $3.24B, worse than the $3.55B analysts expected. Earnings are estimated to increase by -99.1 percent this year, 182.57 percent next year and continue to increase by 12.6 percent annually for the next 5 years.

Let’s take a look at some insider activity at Vistra Energy Corp. (NYSE:VST) and see the pattern. The earliest insider trade took place on 11/19/2018. Apollo Management Holdings Gp, parted with a total of 14 million shares of company at average share price of $23. The total for the sales was set at $322.01 million. After this transaction, the 10% Owner account balance stood at 26.13 million shares. The stock grew 14.3 percent since that insider sale. On 11/19/2018, Apollo Management Holdings Gp,, 10% Owner, sold 14.33 million shares at a price per share of $23. This removed 329.58 million shares from the insider’s fortune and the stock saw a 14.3 percent rally in value since the news became public. This transaction left 25.8 million shares in the 10% Owner account.

On 11/09/2018, Director Ackermann Hilary E. performed a sale transaction worth $15.8 thousand. This sale at $24.24 each has eliminated 0.65 thousand shares from the insider’s portfolio position. Meanwhile, shares have recorded 8.46 percent increase since the transaction was reported. The insider now is left with 29.07 thousand shares remaining in the account. Burke James A, who performs the EVP and COO job, sold 9.79 thousand shares for $240.88 thousand. The disposal occurred on 11/07/2018 was priced at $24.61 per share. The share price soared 6.83 percent since the reporting date. Burke James A now left with a stake of 147.01 thousand VST stock worth $3.86 million after the insider selling.

The stock is currently hovering around the first support level of $26.12. Below this, the next support is placed in the zone of $25.96. Till the time, the VST stock trades above this level, bulls have nothing to fear. On momentum oscillators front, ‘RSI’ has touched 69.11 on daily chart, which may remain a cause for concern. If the price breaks below $25.96 level on closing basis, then we may see more profit booking and the stock may show further weakness. On the flipside, hitting the $26.53 mark may result into a pull-back move towards $26.78 level.

Further, it is sporting a 1.74 on the Price-to-Sales ratio. Compare this with the industry average P/S of 3.27.