Is Amyris, Inc. (AMRS) Soaring Insider Trading Sending a Signal?

The exact reason why investors have been taking down Amyris, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMRS) stock at a frenetic pace might seem like a bit of a head-scratcher at the moment, but that’s only if you are buying the stock for the wrong reasons. On 12 February, the shares dropped -0.11 points or -2.2 percent at $4.9 with a heavy trade volume of 3.671 million shares. After opening the session at $5.14, the shares went as high as $5.185 and as low as $4.77, the range within which the stock’s price traded throughout the day. The firm is left with a market cap of $337 million and now has 68.75 million shares outstanding. Amyris, Inc. (AMRS) stock has gained 27.94 percent of market value in 21 trading days.

AMRS stock has a trailing 3-year beta of 0.18, offering the possibility of a lower rate of return, but also posing less risk. The portion of a company’s profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock was -$1.98 a share in the trailing twelve months. The stock’s value has surged 46.71 percent year to date (YTD) against a decline of -1.01 percent in 12 month’s time. The company’s shares still trade -47.23 percent away from its 1-year high of $9.28 and 85.61 percent up from 52-week low of $2.64. The average consensus rating on the company is 0, on a scale where 5 equates to a unanimous sell rating. In short, the mean analyst recommendations are calling this stock a buy.

Amyris, Inc. (AMRS) will probably climb 93.88 percent over the next 12 months, according to price target estimates compiled by finviz. Meanwhile, they have set a $11 price as 12-month high target. This represents a whopping 124.49 percent increase from where shares are trading today. The 12-month median price target assigned by the analysts stands at $9.5, which represents a return potential of 93.88 percent when compared to the closing price of the stock of $4.9 on Tuesday, February 12. The lowest price target for the stock is $8 — slightly more than 63.27 percent from AMRS’s current share price.

History has shown that shares in Amyris, Inc. have gone down on 23 different earnings reaction days and are predicted to add 0.09 percent when the company reports upcoming earnings. Investors will get their next glimpse of AMRS’s Q4 earnings on February 26. Analysts are forecasting revenue to climb 25 percent to $101M in the fiscal fourth quarter, while earnings are seen soaring by nearly -335.29 percent to $0.4 per share. It earned -$1.13 per share, worse than the -$0.17, adjusted, expected by Thomson Reuters consensus estimate. Revenue was $14.87M, worse than the $46.72M analysts expected. Earnings are estimated to increase by 71.8 percent this year, 82.8 percent next year and continue to increase by 30 percent annually for the next 5 years.

Let’s take a look at some insider activity at Amyris, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMRS) and see the pattern. The earliest insider trade took place on 12/13/2018. Alvarez Eduardo gathered a total of 11.83 thousand shares of company at average share price of $4.23. The total for the purchase was set at $50.06 thousand. After this transaction, the COO account balance stood at 333.88 thousand shares. The stock grew 15.84 percent since that insider purchase. On 11/27/2018, Valiasek Kathleen, CFO, purchased 23 thousand shares at a price per share of $4.37. This added 100.51 thousand shares to the insider’s fortune and the stock saw a 12.13 percent rally in value since the news became public. This transaction left 251.63 thousand shares in the CFO account.

On 10/15/2018, President and CEO Melo John performed a sale transaction worth $38.96 thousand. This sale at $7.5 each has eliminated 5.2 thousand shares from the insider’s portfolio position. Meanwhile, shares have recorded -34.67 percent decrease since the transaction was reported. The insider now is left with 743.71 thousand shares remaining in the account. Alvarez Eduardo, who performs the COO job, bought 11.88 thousand shares for $100.36 thousand. The acquisition occurred on 09/05/2018 was priced at $8.45 per share. The share price plunged -42.01 percent since the reporting date. Alvarez Eduardo now left with a stake of 331.88 thousand AMRS stock worth $1.63 million after the insider buying.

The stock is currently hovering around the first support level of $4.72. Below this, the next support is placed in the zone of $4.54. Till the time, the AMRS stock trades above this level, bulls have nothing to fear. On momentum oscillators front, ‘RSI’ has touched 59.53 on daily chart, which may remain a cause for concern. If the price breaks below $4.54 level on closing basis, then we may see more profit booking and the stock may show further weakness. On the flipside, hitting the $5.13 mark may result into a pull-back move towards $5.37 level.

Further, it is sporting a 2.38 on the Price-to-Sales ratio. Compare this with the industry average P/S of 1.69. 75.4 percent is the gross profit margin for Amyris, Inc. and operating margin sits at -24 percent. Along with this, the net profit margin is 0 percent.