Short Sellers Turning Bullish On Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL)

Fossil Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FOSL) short sellers believe it will rise in price. The most recent short interest data has been released for the December 31st settlement date, which shows a -415,868 share decrease in total short interest for FOSL, to 13,307,785, a retreat of 3.03% since December 14th. Average daily volume for Fossil Group, Inc. at the December 31st settlement plunged to 1,396,258, as compared to 1,590,283 at the December 14th report. That brought days to cover to 9.531036, a 10.44% increase from the 8.629692 days to cover recorded at the prior short interest data release. You could look at analyst ratings. The average analyst recommendations at 0 suggests selling these shares. But the opinions of a small number of people, though sometimes influential, doesn’t always speak for the hundreds of thousands of traders on Wall Street.

Investors will get their next glimpse of FOSL’s Q4 earnings on February 12. Analysts are forecasting revenue to suffer decline of -12.1 percent to $810M in the next fiscal quarter, while earnings are seen soaring by nearly 73.44 percent to $1.11 per share. History has shown that shares in Fossil Group, Inc. have gone up on 18 different earnings reaction days and are predicted to add 0.12 percent when the company reports upcoming earnings. In last reported earnings results, it earned $0.19 per share, better than the -$0.19, adjusted, expected by Thomson Reuters consensus estimate. Revenue was $609M, worse than the $616M analysts expected. Earnings are estimated to increase by -740.9 percent this year, 28.01 percent next year and continue to increase by 17.3 percent annually for the next 5 years.

Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) will probably climb 17.65 percent over the next 12 months, according to price target estimates compiled by finviz. Meanwhile, they have set a $33price as 12-month high target. This represents a whopping 92.2 percent increase from where shares are trading today. The 12-month median price target assigned by the analysts stands at $21, which represents a return potential of 22.31 percent when compared to the closing price of the stock of $17.17 on Thursday, January 10. The lowest price target for the stock is $6 — slightly more than -65.06 percent from FOSL’s current share price.

The stock is currently hovering around the first support level of $16.25. Below this, the next support is placed in the zone of $15.32. Till the time, the FOSL stock trades above this level, bulls have nothing to fear. On momentum oscillators front, ‘RSI’ has touched 48.76 on daily chart, which may remain a cause for concern. If the price breaks below $15.32 level on closing basis, then we may see more profit booking and the stock may show further weakness. On the flipside, hitting the $18.05 mark may result into a pull-back move towards $18.92 level.

On 10th of January, Fossil Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FOSL) shares ended lower after a volatile session. The shares dropped -1.86 points or -9.77 percent at $17.17 with a heavy trade volume of 3.352 million shares. After opening the session at $17.75, the shares went as high as $18 and as low as $16.2, the range within which the stock’s price traded throughout the day. The firm is left with a market cap of $854 million and now has 49.76 million shares outstanding. Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) stock has gained 2.45 percent of market value in 21 trading days.

FOSL stock has a trailing 3-year beta of 0.16, offering the possibility of a lower rate of return, but also posing less risk. The portion of a company’s profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock was -$3.24 a share in the trailing twelve months. The stock’s value has surged 9.15 percent year to date (YTD) against a rise of 111.45 percent in 12 month’s time. The company’s shares still trade -46.63 percent away from its 1-year high of $32.17 and 139.8 percent up from 52-week low of $7.16. The average consensus rating on the company is 0, on a scale where 5 equates to a unanimous sell rating. In short, the mean analyst recommendations are calling this stock a buy.

Shares of Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL) are trading at a P/E ratio of 0 times earnings reported for the past 12 months. The industry FOSL operates in has an average P/E of 40.11. Its P/E ratio went as low as 8.11X and as high as 18.32 over the 5-year span. Further, it is sporting a 0.32 on the Price-to-Sales ratio. Compare this with the industry average P/S of 6.48. 51.3 percent is the gross profit margin for Fossil Group, Inc. and operating margin sits at 1.7 percent. Along with this, the net profit margin is -4.9 percent.

Let’s take a look at some insider activity at Fossil Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FOSL) and see the pattern. The earliest insider trade took place on 12/03/2018. White John A. parted with a total of 18.8 thousand shares of company at average share price of $20.75. The total for the sales was set at $390.1 thousand. After this transaction, the Executive V.P. and COO account balance stood at 126.54 thousand shares. The stock lost -17.25 percent since that insider sale. On 11/26/2018, Skinner James E, Director, sold 6 thousand shares at a price per share of $21.31. This removed 127.86 thousand shares from the insider’s fortune and the stock saw a -19.43 percent retreat in value since the news became public. This transaction left 36.94 thousand shares in the Director account.

On 11/15/2018, Executive V.P. and COO White John A. performed a sale transaction worth $311.39 thousand. This sale at $19.1 each has eliminated 16.3 thousand shares from the insider’s portfolio position. Meanwhile, shares have recorded -10.1 percent decrease since the transaction was reported. The insider now is left with 147.28 thousand shares remaining in the account. Hart Darren E., who performs the Executive Vice President job, sold 40.01 thousand shares for $1.05 million. The disposal occurred on 08/23/2018 was priced at $26.19 per share. The share price plunged -34.44 percent since the reporting date. Hart Darren E. now left with a stake of 101.98 thousand FOSL stock worth $1.75 million after the insider selling.